Hi everyone, Gygaxian here. Some of you may remember my previous posts on Democrats in Utah. They tended to be high in detail, low in numbers, and quite long-winded. In light of that, I’m writing a post highlighting only state legislative races I consider “key”, winnable, or of particular interest. All races not mentioned are Safe R if held by Republicans, Safe D if held by Democrats, or just not up this year. I doubt anyone wants to see “Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe D Safe R”, so I’m excluding the ones that are completely out of reach, which is most of them. All ratings are subjective and may change as I receive new information. Also, FollowTheMoney’s records for candidate cash on hand for Utah legislative candidates is somewhat outdated, so if you look up these candidates and it says “$0”, that is incorrect.
State House
District 10: Rep. Dixon Pitcher (R) (Tossup to Tilt R): Dixon Pitcher has represented this 62% Romney district in western Ogden twice, once from 1985-1986, and again from 2011-present. I don’t know much about Pitcher personally, but I do know that the district is 26% Hispanic, and from what I understand, a few Demosaurs, or ancestrally Democratic voters. Pitcher won 55-44 in 2014, and 57-43 in 2012. Considering the results of many other districts I’ll show you, that’s pretty weak for a Republican incumbent. This year, we’ve got an A-list candidate for the seat, former four-term Ogden city councilman and life-long Ogdenite Jesus “Jesse” Garcia.Yes, that means that it will be determined whether Utahns will vote for Jesus if he has a “D” behind his name.
Joking aside, Garcia’s candidacy, combined with the potential Trumpoclypse at the top of the ballot, energized Latinos, and presidential turnout in any case, gives us a good chance of winning this seat. I give this race a Tossup or Tilt R rating, as it was held by a Republican for years even before Pitcher’s current run, and if they can fend off the taint of Trump, or if the 26% Latino population doesn’t GOTV, Pitcher could win. If Garcia does win, that gives us a seat in Weber county, which we’ve been lacking since 2010.
District 22: Rep. Susan Duckworth (D) (Likely D): Susan Duckworth has represented this 59% Romney 37% Obama Magna-based district since 2008. The district is an old union stronghold, and has shifted from a strongly Democratic district to a somewhat swing district in midterms, when turnout plummets. In 2014, Duckworth defeated Bill Both 51-41% (a difference of about 500 votes), with Constitution candidate Marilee Roose taking 6%. However, in 2012, Duckworth didn’t even have a Republican opponent, facing Marlisee Roose again and winning 72-26%. In 2010, Duckworth won 52-47, and in 2008, Duckworth won 76-23%. Duckworth’s moderate, pro-labor profile should ensure easy wins in presidential years and close calls in midterms, but there’s always the chance of an upset, so I rank her as Likely D.
HD-30: Rep Fred Cox (R, Incumbent Defeated at Convention) (Tossup or Tilt D): Fred Cox has represented this swingy 60% Romney district in West Valley City twice, first when appointed to the district from 2011 (when it was HD-32), to 2012 when redistricting threw him into HD-30 against incumbent Democrat Jan Fisher, and from 2014 to now. In 2012 Fisher defeated him 51-48 (a difference of about 300 votes), and after Fisher’s retirement in 2014, Cox squeaked in a 45-vote (50-49.6%) victory against Michael D. Lee, a West Valley City police officer.
However, Cox was seen as unlikable and ineffective in the legislature, and he was defeated in the 2016 county convention by former West Valley Mayor Mike Winder. Winder has high name recognition, but a lot of baggage (Just google “Richard Burwash” and also high crime rates in West Valley). Additionally, the district is 30% Latino, and Latino Utahns are going to be very excited to vote this presidential election, for many reasons, if they are eligible. The Democratic nominee this year is Frank Bedolla, a Latino rights activist and social worker. I rank this seat as either a Tossup, in case Winder’s baggage isn’t an issue, or Tilt D, if it is an issue, as I’ve been told by those on the ground that Winder is a stronger candidate than Cox, unless his baggage overwhelms him. Winder has $35,713 to
HD-31: Rep Sophia DiCaro (R) (Tossup to Tilt R): Sophia DiCaro has only represented this 54% Romney seat in north and central West Valley since 2014, when she defeated five-term incumbent Democrat Larry Wiley by 52-47 (about 200 votes). DiCaro was/is perceived as a Republican “rising star”, and the Utah GOP put a great deal of effort into ousting Wiley. Before his defeat, Wiley had been redistricted from a fairly safe district into a swing district, only winning 50-49% in 2012, but winning 58% in 2010. Unlike Cox, DiCaro has built a good relationship with her fellow legislators. Like HD-30, this district is heavily Latino, at 38% Latino, but like HD-30, their influence in this race depends on how many are citizens and voters. The Democratic nominee is Elizabeth Weight, a teacher and teacher’s union leader. I don’t know how vulnerable DiCaro is, but I have heard that Wiley was one of the few Democrats who could have kept this seat. So I’m classifying the seat as Tossup to Tilt R, depending on how good a candidate Elizabeth Weight is. It could definitely be a better seat for us in the future, though.
HD-33: Rep Craig Hall (R) (Tilt R To Lean R): Craig Hall has represented this 52% Romney seat in southern West Valley since 2012. Hall has deep roots in the district, and is able to secure labor endorsements and Hispanic voters fairly easily, despite the district having both a strong labor tradition and now a 36% Hispanic population. In fact, the competing traditions are part of our problem. In 2012, the district had a 22-year Democratic incumbent, Neal Hendrickson, who was strongly supported by labor groups. However, the delegates in the district in 2012 proved to be more Hispanic and progressive than in past years, and Hendrickson was thrown out in favor of Liz Muniz, an action that angered the Utah AFL-CIO, who endorsed Hall, despite Utah AFL-CIO leader Jim Judd (who died before the general election) supporting Muniz. Hall won 52% to Muniz’s 47%.
Due to the relatively pro-Obama presidential margin (only 52% Romney is practically Democratic) this is one seat that is hard to classify as a “Romneygeddon” seat, where Romney helped the Republican candidate win just by being at the top of the ballot. Hall had a re-match with Muniz in 2014, and he defeated her 58-41%. Our candidate this year is Peter Tomala, who was Salt Lake County Democratic Secretary until he resigned to run for this race, as county party bylaws do not allow serving party officers to run for elected offices. He’s young and a pretty energetic campaigner, judging by his run for the County Democratic position (which he lost). He doesn’t have any overt ties to labor or Latino civil rights groups, which could be helpful if he’s looking to avoid offending either one. Craig Hall will be a difficult opponent, but a Trump at the top of the ticket could potentially energize Hispanic voters and oust Hall. But it’s a stretch, so it’s a Tilt R to Lean R race.
HD-34: Rep Johnny Anderson (R, OPEN) (Toss-up to Lean D) Johnny Anderson has represented this 57% Romney seat in Taylorsville and West Valley since his appointment in 2009, and like Craig Hall, has cultivated a strong relationship with the district’s Hispanic voters and labor groups, also getting local union endorsements. He won 53-46 in both 2012 and 2014, a difference of about 200 votes in 2014, and about 395 in 2012. This is in a relatively pro-Obama seat with an almost 20% Latino population, and honestly, our “bench” is pretty strong, comparatively speaking. Anderson is just that popular. However, he’s retiring this year, which evaporates all the work he did in cultivating Democratic voters in the seat. His GOP would-be successors are Jack Castellanos and Macade Jensen, who are facing off in a primary in June.
The Democrat running is Karen Kwan, a professor at Salt Lake Community College who was also the 2014 Democratic nominee for the seat. This is another seat where candidate quality is crucial; Anderson was basically defending a seat that by all rights should be Democratic, but held it due to his popularity. Kwan managed to turn what should have been an easy win for Anderson into a fairly close race, and with presidential turnout, a potentially brutal GOP primary fight, and an open seat, she should be able to win this, so I call this a Toss-up to Lean D. Incidentally, Kwan would be the first Chinese-American woman in the state legislature, and only the second Asian-American woman, after State Senator Jani Iwamoto.
HD-38: Rep Eric Hutchings (R) (Lean R): Eric Hutchings has held this 59% Romney seat centered in Kearns since 2001. The district is 28% Hispanic, but like many other strongly Hispanic districts in Utah, many of them do not or cannot vote. Hutchings is a fairly moderate legislator for Utah, and does not seem to have angered anyone too badly, but at the same time, a potential Trumpoclypse and that 28% Hispanic population could cause some problems for Hutchings. He won 58-42% in 2014 (difference of 384 votes), and 58-41% in 2012 (difference of 723 votes). Not the closest margin, but still a good Dem performance against a decade-long incumbent. Our candidate here is Charles Henderson, who was also the 2008 nominee (losing 55-44% to Hutchings).
Incidentally Henderson has apparently been very involved in Kearns community service, and in 2008 had $32,500 to give to the Utah Democratic Party, so his wealth and community service could help us. I label this race Lean R as I don’t see any overriding reason voters would oust Hutchings. However, it could shift to the Dems in an upset, and Henderson would be the best to do it. As a point of information, Henderson also happens to be African-American, but would only be something like the 6th or 7th African-American in the legislature if elected.
HD-43: Rep Earl Tanner (R, defeated at convention) (Likely R): Earl Tanner held this 66% Romney district in northeastern West Jordan since 2012, when incumbent Wayne Harper ran for state senate. Tanner is pretty generic, but apparently he wasn’t very effective in the state house, as that was the reasoning given by delegates who threw him out in favor of Adam Gardiner, a younger guy who has been involved in the SLCO GOP for many years, and was Congressman Rob Bishop’s aide before that. Gardiner faces Democrat Edgar Harwood, a member of the United Progressive Coalition of Utah, a new progressive group that appeared in several legislative races this year. I don’t know how good of a candidate Harwood is, but I’m willing to hear him out. Tanner won 57-42 in 2014, and 60-40 in 2012. Harwood could benefit from the ousting of Tanner, since I imagine there might be hurt feelings about that. However, it’s in my home city of West Jordan, and knowing what I do about it’s conservatism, I label this Likely R, winnable only in an utter landslide.
HD-44: Rep Bruce Cutler (R) (Lean D): Bruce Cutler, a software engineer, has held this 59% Romney seat in Murray and parts of Midvale and Sandy since 2014. This will be a short entry, as he’s pretty unremarkable and new to the legislature, and happens to have a very strong opponent. His opponent is autism advocate and 2014 Democratic nominee Christine Passey, who he defeated 48-47%, a difference of 53 votes, all mail-in ballot. I’m extremely excited about this race, as the loss seems completely blameable on midterm turnout. Passey hit the ground running right after her loss, and appears to be campaigning and fundraising harder than ever before. Frankly, with Trump on the ballot, an energized Democratic ground game, and a one-term legislator who no one knows a thing about, I don’t see how Passey loses. Thus, I call this Lean D, at least.
HD-45: Rep Steve Eliason (R) (Lean R to Likely R) Steve Eliason has held this 62% Romney district in Sandy since 2010. He defeated his 2014 opponent 58-41, and his 2012 opponent 55-44, both pretty under-funded, even by the standards of Utah Democratic candidates. He faces Nikki Cunard, a childcare and safe kids advocate, who serves on the Sandy Hills community council. I don’t know much about her, but she seems to be well-supported by Democrats I know in the area, and seems to have a reasonable amount of money. Unfortunately, even with a more professional and focused campaign, I’m not sure if Cunard can defeat Eliason. Again, what happens upballot is key to a win here. That being said, I mark this Lean R to Likely R, but depending on how active Cunard campaigns, that could change.
HD-46: Rep Marie Poulson (D) (Likely D): Marie Poulson has represented this 55% Romney district in Cottonwood Heights since 2008, and has won by roughly 55% every single election since then. She’s a pretty mainstream liberal as far as I can tell, and doesn’t have a large number of haters or superfans. It appears that the fundamentals of the district simply don’t give her a better or worse result. A good or bad result for us could change that, and all of the wins are fairly close, so I classify this as Likely D rather than Safe D, simply because it’s too close for comfort.
HD-49: Rep Robert Spendlove (R) (Likely R, Lean R at best): Robert Spendlove has represented this 64% Romney district in Sandy since January 2014, when incumbent Derek Brown stepped down to become Mike Lee’s deputy chief of staff. I know very little about this district, but Brown won 61-38 in 2012, and Spendlove won 56-43 in 2014 (a win of 1,590 votes). Spendlove is getting a rematch from 2014 opponent, firefighter Zach Robinson. By all accounts, Robinson is doing better than in 2014; more fundraising, more campaigning, everything’s better than before. Additionally, this year will probably go quite well for Utah Democrats. However, the district is pretty conservative, and I don’t know if Spendlove has done anything to anger voters in the district. So, Likely R at worst, Lean R if Spendlove suddenly becomes unpalatable to his district.
HD-69: Rep Brad King (D) (Likely D): Brad King has represented this 71% Romney district compromised of a huge chunk of central twice over his career, once from 1998 to 2008, and now from 2014 to present. A little bit of backstory; in 2008, he retired to run for state senate and lost, leaving his house district to fellow Democrat Christine Watkins, who won the seat. However, Watkins lost the seat to Republican Jerry Anderson in 2012. She then switched to the Republicans, and proceeded to try to beat Anderson at the convention in 2014. They both lost against businessman Bill Labrum, who faced off against un-retired Brad King, King winning 55-44. This is coal country, and only a conservative Democrat who loves coal can win here; think West Virginia. Thankfully, Brad King is that kind of Democrat, and as long as he’s in office, we should win, thus I label it Likely D. But it’s lost to us forever as soon as he retires.
State Senate
SD-01: State Senator Luz Escamilla (D) (Likely to Safe D) Luz Escamilla has been serving in this 50 Romney district in Salt Lake City since 2008. She’s the only serving Latina state senator, having defeated moderate labor Democrat incumbent Fred Fife at convention, much like Liz Muniz over in HD-33. However, Escamilla (who was then Luz Robles; she married a couple of years ago) triumphed 57-42 in 2008, and in 2012 won 55-44 against a well-funded Republican. Escamilla is mostly on this list because she’s the only Democratic state senator up for re-election this year. Her wins are close, but consistent, and I don’t see her Republican opponent, 2012 HD-31 nominee Fred Johnson, as a threat. She should breeze to re-election, so I say it’s a Likely D to Safe D seat. Incidentally, she was also the Democratic nominee for UT-02.
SD-06: State Senator Wayne Harper (R) (Lean R to Likely R): Wayne Harper has represented this 65% Romney district in Taylorsville and West Jordan since 2012. It’s a ridiculously suburban district, even by Utah standards, and is generally conservative; West Jordan last having a Democratic city councilman in the 1990s, and no Democratic legislators since roughly that time. Harper is pretty inoffensive overall, but he has used his influence as a legislator to defend a convicted sex offender. Harper’s opponent is 2012 HD-34 nominee Celina Milner. Harper won 60-40 in 2012, and his predecessor Mike Waddoups won 57-42 in 2008. Generally I’d call this Safe R, but I’m being extra hopeful this year because it’s my senate district and Milner is a strong candidate, so Lean R to Likely R. A potential flare-up could be the race in HD-34, part of which is in SD-06. If Democrats can win there, that might help chances here.
SD-08: State Senator Brian Shiozawa (R) (Likely R): Brian Shiozawa has represented this 56% Romney district in Cottonwood Heights since 2012. Shiozawa is a genuinely moderate Republican by Utah standards, and was one of the few in favor of Governor Herbert’s version of Medicaid expansion. Shiozawa’s district was formerly held by a moderate Democrat, but was redistricted to be more Republican friendly. Shiozawa won against Utah Democratic Vice-Chair Josie Valdez 57-43%. He’s a strong, well-funded incumbent, but the district is more Democratic than most in Utah, and could potentially have a meltdown with Trump at the top of the ticket. Unfortunately, his opponent is literally a last-minute candidate, Ash Anderson, who entered with no money or support on the last day of filing. I don’t know much about Anderson, but if the Utah Democrats are smart, they’ll fund and help Anderson’s campaign, because the seat is one of two winnable seats in the state senate this year. I call this Likely R due to Shiozawa’s strength and the fact that a last minute campaign had to be waged on the Democratic side. Incidentally, Shiozawa is one of four Japanese-Americans in the legislature.