Utah’s 4th Congressional District is a district we need to win to take back the House. At first glance, it may seem insurmountable, but this post is designed to prove that it isn’t the case. From 2012-2014, centrist Democrat Congressman Jim Matheson held it, defeating Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love. Matheson then retired and the district was won by Love in 2014, who defeated Doug Owens, a centrist Democratic lawyer (also the son of former Congressman Wayne Owens).
First, let’s look at the numbers for the district as a whole, approximating for ease of reading:
2012 (Matheson): 49-47% (with a Libertarian taking 2.6%). Matheson received 119,803 to Mia Love’s 119,035. The Libertarian took 6,439.
2014 (Owens): 47-51% (the same Libertarian taking about 1%). Owens received 67,425 to Mia Love’s 74,935, with the Libertarian getting 1,351 and a Constitution Party nominee getting 1,424)
2016 (Owens): 41-54% (with a Constitution Party candidate taking about 5%). Owens received 113,413 to Mia Love’s 147,597, with the Constitution Party nominee gaining 11,067.
Next, let’s look at the results by county, and their percentages (again approximated).
2012 (Matheson):
Salt Lake: 52% (109,599 votes to Mia Love’s 94,236, with the Libertarian taking 5,626)
Utah: 27% (7635 votes to Mia Love’s 19,732)
Juab: 35% (1,253 votes to Mia Love’s 2,241)
Sanpete: 31% (1316 votes to Mia Love’s 2,826)
2014 (Owens):
Salt Lake: 49% (62,480 to Love’s 60,364, with the Libertarian taking 1,177)
Utah: 23% (3,461 to Love’s 10727)
Juab: 28% (796 to Love’s 1,958)
Sanpete: 26% (688 to Love’s 1,887)
2016 (Owens):
Salt Lake: 45% (104,722 to Love’s 114,981)
Utah: 19% (7,020 to Love’s 26,320)
Juab: 20% (745 to Love’s 2,869)
Sanpete: 20% (926 to Love’s 3,427)
Next, let’s look at candidates that have gotten close to Jim Matheson’s percentage in at least one county, as he is the only Democrat who has won in this district. I am only including Salt Lake County-wide candidates, as we don’t actually have any candidates who have won countywide in any other county, within the timeframe of 2012-2016, so we have no applicable numbers for victories in the other counties. Candidates results for Salt Lake County also include Salt Lake City, which is not in the district. I have no easy solution to cutting away the city from the county as a whole, so that is a caveat with some of the countywide results.
County Mayor Ben McAdams (2016 and 2012) 54% and 59%. He’s generally a moderate Democrat, though he was more liberal as a state senator from Salt Lake City.
County Sheriff Jim Winder (2010 and 2014) 56% and 60%. Moderate, though a little more conservative on law and order, as sheriffs tend to be.
County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson (2006 and 2014, she skipped 2010) 50% and 52%. Center-left, currently a possible candidate for US Senate.
County Clerk Sherrie Swenson (2006, 2010 and 2014) 58%, 61%, and 63%. Political stances unknown, but tends to be in favor of expanded voting rights.
District Attorney Sim Gill (2010 and 2014) 51% (with a Libertarian getting 4%) and 51% in 2014 without a Libertarian. Gill also received 46% in 2006. Center-left, wants to end the drug war, played a large role in prosecuting two corrupt Utah AGs.
State Senator Jani Iwamoto (also a Councilwoman from 2008-2012) got 54% countywide and in 2014, 60% in her district. Center-left, represents a center-left area.
Of the Democratic County Council members, there’s also Jim Bradley (moderate), Sam Granato (moderate) and Arlyn Bradshaw (very liberal), but Bradley is in his 70s and appears to be perfectly happy being a Councilman, Arlyn Bradshaw represents Salt Lake City itself on the County Council, and so the majority of his territory is outside of the district, and Granato is also likely too old for a first-time candidate for the district.
I am not including any other candidates for ease of reference, though there’s always a possibility that a candidate I am not considering (or the candidates currently running) could surprise me. However, this overview is a look at what we know wins, and what we know doesn’t win, and the numbers we need to get in the district.
Assuming no sizable Libertarian or Constitution vote, it looks like any Democratic candidate in this district would need at least 52-54% in Salt Lake County, around 25-29% in Utah County, around 35-37% in Juab County, and about 30% in Sanpete County.
EDIT: I am editing this to add some clarification, as I intended to have this circulate among the Daily Kos Elections sub-community, who know most of what I’ve talked about, and it appears to have been found by people who have no earthly idea what I’m talking about.